Bond market turmoil eases across Europe as oil price falls – business live

Over in the US, the pace of job cuts have slowed despite firms using AI to cut their workforces.

Coaching company Challenger, Gray & Christmas have calculated that US-based employers announced 33,429 job cuts in July, down 27% compared with June, and nearly half as many as in July 2025.

It’s the lowest monthly total in two years.

Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer for Challenger, Gray & Christmas, explains:

“The pace of layoffs fell dramatically this summer. Layoff plans continue to be announced primarily in Tech, and artificial intelligence is still the story, as investments in the technology reshape organizations.

“Hiring has also increased over last year by 25%, so while AI is shifting the labor market, it is not dismantling it.

But….

Technology companies announced 9,867 job cuts in July, taking the total so far this year up to 149,023.

Challenger says:

“Tech remains the center of gravity for this year’s cuts, and AI is still the reason companies give.”

32m ago05.52 EDT

Mark Sweney

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Upmarket cinema chain Everyman saw revenues surge by a quarter and admissions rise by a fifth in the first half of the year, as blockbusters including the Michael Jackson music biopic and The Devil Wears Prada sequel saw box office sales top £600m in the UK & Ireland for the first time since before the pandemic.

Everyman, which is in the process of being taken private by its biggest shareholders after the business struggled last year, reported a 23.5% increase in revenues to £69.8m in the half year to 02 July.

Everyman, which has halted new site openings this year as the business refocuses under new chief executive Farah Golant, said that admissions rose 20.5% year-on-year to 2.6m.

The cinema-going recovery, fuelled by box office hits including the latest Super Mario movie, Ryan Gosling’s Project Hail Mary and Toy Story 5, helped Everyman bounce back to a £1.9m pre-tax profit. The company reported a £3.4m loss in the same period last year.

The strong performance meant that the company was able to reduce net debt to £17.4m, from £24.2m a year ago.

Everyman, which is opening three new venues next year, said that it increased its share of the UK market from 5.8% to 6.4% and that its membership programme increased 13.4% to 75,788.

“We have momentum and strong focus to manage the business with discipline and prudent investment,” said Golant.

The company said that it expects its financial performance this year to be “marginally ahead” of 2025, with The Odyssey and Spider-man: Brand New Day proving to be summer blockbusters, and a strong slate to round out the year including the latest releases in the Hunger Games, Avengers and Dune franchises.

In another sign that market tensions are easing, the yen is rallying against the US dollar.

The Japanese currency has gained 1.4% so far today, to ¥156.5/$, adding to a 0.9% rally yesterday.

That taken the yen/$ exchange rate away from the 160 level that tends to make policymakers jumpy.

Last month, the yan rallied thanks to a joint intervention by Washington and Tokyo. This time, though, investors are attributing the move to increased expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan.

Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Hajime Takata can take the credit, after saying yesterday the central bank should conduct interest rate hikes nimbly to counter intensifying inflationary pressures, rather than sticking to the fixed semiannual pace anticipated by markets.

Interestingly, Japan’s top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura has said that financial authorities remain on alert over currency market developments, adding:

“We remain on a state of heightened alert.”

Other European government borrowing costs are dipping this morning too.

The yield on 10-year German bunds is down 1.5bps to 3.36%, while French 10-year bond yields are 1.5bps lower at 4.23%.

These are small moves, but they do show that the bond market sell-off has cooled off this morning (yields fall when bond prices rise.

Just in: The UK services sector has recorded its fastest upturn in output since April.

Data provider S&P Global has reported that firms experienced a “moderate” increase in business activity last month, partly thanks to a rise in new work.

This helped to lifted the Services PMI up to 52.5 in August, up from 52.1 in July, showing faster growth.

However, firms also reported a rise in input cost inflation – Around 31% of firms surveyed said their input prices had risen during August, while less than 1% noted a decline.

This was blamed on higher fuel and transportation bills, alongside rising wages, food prices and technology costs.

Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, explains:

“August data highlighted improving operating conditions across the UK service economy. Business and consumer spending saw further gains after declining during the second quarter of 2026, which led to the fastest expansion of output levels since April.

Service providers are increasingly optimistic about the year ahead business outlook, with confidence levels now close to those seen just prior to the Middle East conflict. However, business activity growth projections were still subdued in comparison to long-run trends amid lingering worries about inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions.

Higher fuel prices and transportation bills reignited overall input cost inflation in August. Moreover, the rate of output charge inflation in the service sector also accelerated for the first time in four months as businesses sought to protect their margins from suppliers’ price hikes.

UK mortgage rates have not - yet - been pushed up by the bond market crisis, new data shows.

Moneyfacts reports:

• The average 2-year fixed residential mortgage rate today is 5.59%. This is unchanged from the previous working day.

• The average 5-year fixed residential mortgage rate today is 5.63%. This is unchanged from the previous working day.

Inflation in Switzerland (not the cheapest place anyway) has doubled, driven up by higher enegy prices.

Swiss consumer prices in August were 0.8% higher than a year ago, figures from the Federal Statistical Office showed, up from the 0.4% rate in July.

The jump was driven by 25% increase in petroleum prices, along with pricier housing rentals, in-patient hospital services, and heating oil.

The drop in the oil price yesterday, and this morning, has helped cool the “global bond rout”, reports Neil Wilson of Saxo Markets.

He told clients:

Comments from the US administration helped ease concerns in bond markets about the energy complex as Energy Sec Wright said 17mn barrels of oil had transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, which if true would be the highest level passing the waterway on a single day since the war started.

Even if the Strait is not open fully such a high figure also doesn’t suggest Iran is in control of it.

The London stock market has opened calmly (apart from Crest Nicholson’s shares!).

The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip equities is down a mere 3 points, or 0.03%, at 10,752.

Housebuilders are among the fallers, following Crest’s (lack of) profits warning, with Barratt and Persimmon both down 1.4%.

UK housebuilder Crest Nicholson has startled investors with a profits warning this morning, sending its shares sliding by over 12%.

Crest now expects to make a loss this financial year, and to build fewer homes than previously forecast.

It told shareholders this morning:

Market conditions have been more subdued than expected through the seasonally quieter summer trading period, with affordability constraints and competitive pricing continuing to weigh on open market sales rates.

As a result, Crest now expects to only complete 1,300 to 1,400 homes this year, down from previous guidance of 1,400 to 1,500.

It now expects to make a loss of around £10m on an EBIT basis (before interest and tax), down from a previous target of a profit of £5m to £10m.

Anthony Codling of RBC Capital Markets says:

Challenging market conditions will see Crest Nicholson sell 50-100 fewer homes this year than it had previously guided, small numbers which will have a big impact on financial performance, turning small profit into a small loss.

Not what the Group will have wanted as it is currently renegotiating its banking covenants, however year-end net debt is expected to be c.£30m better than previously expected due to fire remediation recoveries and land sale revenues demonstrating that Crest is taking a proactive approach to challenging market conditions.

The UK government bond market is open! And there is reassuring news for borrowers, and our political leaders.

UK bond prices are strengthening, a little, which is pushing down the yield (or rate of return) on these gilts.

10-year UK bond yields have dropped by over 4 basis points (0.04 of a percentage point) to 5.195%, away from the 18-year high set yesterday.

30-year bond yields are down 4bps too, to 5.831%.

Update: AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould reports there is “a measure of calm in government bond markets” today, as the oil price drops.

With Brent crude down about 0.5% at $95.20 a barrel, some of the fears of an inflationary shock that would drive interest rates higher may be easing.

The oil price is dropping this morning, which should help ease the bond market wobble.

Brent crude has dropped by 1.1% to $94.57 a barrel, having traded as high as $97/barrel on Wednesday.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

Mortgage borrowers are being warned that borrowing rates are set to rise, as this week’s global bond sell-off ripples through the economy.

Although the turmoil in the bond markets has cooled – for now, at least – the consequences of the jump in bond yields could be serious for borrowers.

That’s because UK swap rates – the interest rates that banks charge when they borrow from each other – have been pushed up by the rise in gilt yields.

The five-year swaps rate yesterday rose above 4.52%, their highest level since October 2023. We’d expect that to result in higher interest rates on fixed-term mortgages.

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AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould explains:

Credit card, mortgage and auto loan interest rates will rise if bond yields rise, as the lenders seek to preserve loan book margins and manage their risk.

Such moves would undermine Andy Burnham’s push to ease cost of living pressures.

Yesterday, the yield on UK 10-year government debt hit its highest level since 2008, before retreating to less painful levels thanks to a drop in the oil price.

Oil has been one of the key factors driving the bond market sell-off, as inflationary pressures from high prices could force central banks to raise interest rates.

Tom Simpson, managing director of homes at Yorkshire Building Society, points out that swaps rates were more volatile in March, at the start of the Iran war.

Simpson told Radio 4’s Today Programme:

All things being equal, you would expect a modest increase in mortgage rates based on what we’ve seen so far.

Simpson emphasised that the moves in the swaps market are more modest than six months ago:

“A 0.1 [percentage point] increase, which is what we’ve seen over the last week, is much less of an increase than when we saw a 0.5 [percentage point] increase in 10 days in March when the Iran war broke out.”

The agenda

• 9am BST: Eurozone services PMI report for August

• 9.30am BST: UK services PMI report for August

• 9.30am: ONS Business insights and impact on the UK economy

• 10.30am: Challenger survey of US Job Cuts

• 3pm BST: US services PMI report for August