Lula wins historic fourth term after stunning runoff comeback against Flávio Bolsonaro

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeated Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a presidential runoff on Sunday, claiming a historic fourth term as Brazil’s president and becoming the first first-round runner-up to win a second round since the country’s return to democracy.

Lula took 51.75% of the vote to Bolsonaro’s 48.25%, with nearly 99% of ballots counted. More than four million votes separated the candidates. The Superior Electoral Court called the race shortly after 9pm Brasilia time on Sunday. More than 64 million ballots were cast for Lula, and north of 59 million for Bolsonaro.

Lula entered the runoff as an underdog after narrowly losing the first round in early October by 2.2 million votes, both candidates short of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff. Abstention fell from 21.08% in the first round to 19.21% in the runoff, a shift his allies had targeted as their main opportunity since Lula voters tend to live farther from polling stations. Between rounds, student-led anti-Bolsonaro protests galvanised the left, and on Saturday more than a million people flocked to Rio’s Copacabana beach while an even larger number marched on Paulista Avenue in São Paulo.

Bolsonaro refuses to concede

Flávio Bolsonaro said it is impossible to acknowledge the result and vowed to seek annulment, accusing the Supreme Court of having changed the rules of the game mid-game. He criticized the court’s extension of voting time as unacceptable. Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ruled to extend voting by two hours after allegations of voter suppression involving suspended public transportation in some areas. Lula’s allies accused Bolsonaro supporters of reducing bus availability to dampen the president’s working-class base, while heavy rains affected southern areas considered Bolsonaro strongholds. Both campaigns had petitioned the Supreme Court for an extension, and polls were kept open until 7pm Brasilia time.

Flávio Bolsonaro is 45 years old and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced to 27 years in prison for plotting a coup after losing to Lula in 2022. The elder Bolsonaro is living under house arrest in Brasília, where his son watched the count. Jair Bolsonaro was hoping to be freed and given a role in government had his son prevailed.

A leftist icon’s fourth act

Lula is 80 years old and turns 81 on Tuesday. A leftist and former union leader who was born in rural poverty and worked as a factory worker, he made three unsuccessful presidential bids in 1989, 1994, and 1998 before winning in 2002. He served two consecutive terms from 2002 through 2010, then won a third term against Jair Bolsonaro in 2022. Lula was coughing and audibly hoarse when he gave his victory speech, having followed the count in São Paulo. He acknowledged the clashes ahead with a right-wing legislature. “I do not choose the Congress,” he said. “It was the people who chose it, and it is with them that I will vote, work and get things approved.”

Governing headwinds and global reverberations

Lula will face a right-wing Congress in his next term, with Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party holding the largest bench in decades. Gross debt reached 82.9% of GDP in August, the highest since March 2021, according to the Central Bank of Brazil. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF plunged nearly 20% in overnight trading following Lula’s win before paring losses, last down 18%. Chris Turner of ING had forecast both currency and bond markets to rally under a Bolsonaro win, citing fiscal austerity and deregulation.

Lula’s victory blocks a rightward shift in Latin America backed by Trump, who is U.S. president and has been supportive of the Bolsonaro family. Right-wing leaders have swept presidential races in Peru, Colombia, Argentina, Bolivia, and Ecuador in recent years. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum congratulated Lula, writing, “Long live democracy, the people of Brazil have won.” U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders called Lula’s re-election extraordinary. Lula is to be sworn in on January 5, 2027, and is set to govern from 2027 to 2030.