Putin rules out ceasefire on long-range strikes with Ukraine and warns West over Kaliningrad

President Vladimir Putin used a speech at the Valdai foreign policy forum in Moscow on Thursday to rule out a ceasefire on long-range strikes with Ukraine and to warn the West that Russia would use all weapons at its disposal if Kaliningrad came under direct attack.

Putin acknowledged that Ukraine had partially achieved its objectives with strikes on Russian oil refineries, which he said had cost Russia about one percent of its GDP. “We are told: ‘Let them stop striking your refineries, and you will stop striking their ships.’ It is simply ridiculous,” Putin said, insisting Russia was now responding in kind to Ukrainian strikes on refineries and ships. Putin also said Russia would prefer to end the conflict through talks and wanted Ukraine to be a neutral country after hostilities ended.

Kaliningrad and the nuclear threshold

“If it comes to a direct attack on the Russian Federation, in this case we are talking about Kaliningrad but possibly some other territories, of course the issue of use by the Russian Federation of all arms at the disposal of our country will inevitably and immediately be on the agenda,” Putin said. Russia has accused NATO of preparing to blockade Kaliningrad, a Russian Baltic exclave wedged between Poland and Lithuania, and warned it would use nuclear weapons if the West tried to cut off the exclave. Putin accused NATO of holding naval manoeuvres in the Baltic Sea that he argued represented serious threats to Kaliningrad. “We are not threatening anyone. We do not intend to attack anyone in 2029, in 2030, in 2050. But if we come across an aggression we will have to respond. Citizens of European countries should be fully aware of that,” he said. NATO said this week it had received a diplomatic note from Russia warning it would be ready to resort to nuclear weapons if NATO attempted to cut off Kaliningrad. Putin said he was aware of the nuclear capabilities of the UK and France but that Russia’s weapons were unparalleled.

Western officials have long feared Russia would use the Suwalki Gap between Kaliningrad and Belarus to seize Lithuanian territory by force. Lithuania’s prime minister told the BBC last week that his country had made evacuation plans in case Russia invaded. Thousands of NATO troops are stationed in Lithuania. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on Wednesday that none of the alliance’s exercises or activities posed any threat to Moscow and that the Kremlin’s messaging was “absolutely not called for and not helpful.” Poland said a Russian helicopter had strayed into its territory adjacent to Kaliningrad last week. Lithuania said its population felt “constantly threatened” by Russia, in part because of drones entering the nation’s airspace.

No ceasefire on strikes

Putin’s remarks followed a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York on September 22, when Zelenskyy said Kyiv was ready to cease strikes on Russian oil refineries if Moscow also stopped its attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Russia has ramped up long-range strikes targeting Ukraine’s steel companies as well as supply chains, notably in the rail sector. Putin warned that cycles of escalation could quickly lead to dangerous scenarios. “We must realise that the moment when nothing can be changed any longer may come very quickly and unexpectedly for everyone,” he said. “The logic of escalating, increasingly harsh retaliatory measures leads to a fatal point of no return.” He drew the analogy of a gun sitting on a theatre stage, saying if it was hanging there at the start of the show it would certainly be fired at the end.

Broader warnings

Putin said international conflicts were highly likely to continue but would get better as “Western hegemony” weakened. He blamed the West for provoking the invasion of Ukraine, arguing Moscow had been forced to defend itself. “Now from every direction we’re receiving calls ‘let’s stop’. But they started it,” he said. He warned of the increasing risk of artificial intelligence. “The automation and digitalisation of warfare leads to its gamification. This leads to degradation and sliding back of humanity to barbarity,” Putin said. He said in a favourable scenario the assets of Western companies that Moscow had seized could potentially be returned. Putin last month ordered the seizure of businesses and assets of Nestle, Auchan, the former Leroy Merlin DIY chain, and Metro. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Thursday that his country was preparing for further hybrid attacks after a drone armed with explosives was found in August on the tarmac at Leipzig airport close to Ukrainian cargo planes.

A Russian drone struck infrastructure in Kyiv on Thursday. Another drone struck a school in the capital. No casualties were reported as children and staff were in shelters.