Separatist Parti Québécois wins Quebec election with a minority, vowing a third independence referendum

The sovereigntist Parti Québécois won the most seats in Monday’s provincial election and will form a minority government, putting PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon on course to become premier.

The PQ has pledged to hold a third referendum on Quebec’s independence from Canada, a promise that hands Prime Minister Mark Carney a national-unity challenge on two fronts. An independence-related vote in Alberta is roughly two weeks away, meaning Carney could face simultaneous separatist pressures in different parts of the country.

A third referendum — eventually

Quebec held referendums on independence in 1980 and 1995, and voters rejected secession both times. The 1995 vote was decided by a narrow margin, and there has been no further plebiscite in the three decades since. Support for independence currently stands at about 30 percent, low by historical standards. Plamondon promised a third referendum during his first term but said the vote would wait until US President Donald Trump leaves office in January 2029. Trump is due to depart in roughly two years, meaning a third plebiscite would likely be scheduled for 2029 or 2030.

From three seats to government

The result marks a sharp recovery for the PQ, which won just three seats in the 2022 provincial election. The victory ends eight years in power for the Coalition Avenir Québec, a party that does not support independence. The PQ’s success is in part due to public fatigue with the CAQ government, whose longtime leader, François Legault, lost significant support among voters. Efforts to revive the party by replacing Legault with outgoing Premier Christine Fréchette were unsuccessful. Fréchette conceded her re-election race in Trois-Rivières shortly before 22:00 local time. The Quebec Liberal Party secured the second-most seats, while the Quebec Conservative Party gained seats.

A total of 64 seats are needed for a majority in the 127-seat National Assembly. Projected to fall short of that threshold, the PQ will need support from opposition lawmakers to pass major legislation and survive confidence votes.

Taking on the monarchy

Plamondon pledged to abolish the monarchy in Quebec and reroute money spent on its institutions to social services. He suggested defunding the lieutenant-governor’s office, which represents King Charles III in the province, and spending that money to tackle homelessness. Plamondon was among Quebec lawmakers who refused to pledge allegiance to the King in 2022, leading to a provincial law making the oath of allegiance optional. The plan to withdraw financial support for the lieutenant-governor’s office is likely to face significant legal challenges given the monarchy’s central role in Canada’s constitution. Such a move would put future Quebec laws in doubt, as the lieutenant-governor gives royal assent to new legislation. Plamondon said he is ready for a legal battle with the federal government. He also vowed to fight any immigration increases mandated by the Carney government.

Carney seeks cooperation

Carney congratulated Plamondon late on Monday and vowed to work together. Carney leads the federal Liberal party and remains popular in Quebec, though support recently dipped as Trump imposed new tariffs on Canada in August following a breakdown in trade talks. Quebec is among the hardest hit by the latest US tariffs, with Oxford Economics projecting a C$2bn blow for the province. Daniel Beland, a political science professor at McGill University, said the victory reflects Quebec’s multiparty system rather than a surge in secessionist sentiment. “Seeing that a pro-independence party won in Quebec barely two weeks before an independence-related referendum takes place in Alberta might suggest to the Trump administration that national unity remains a major issue in Canada despite the popularity of Mark Carney,” Beland said.