Justice Department sues to block Alaska from certifying Senate result over two candidates named Sullivan

The Justice Department has filed a lawsuit to block Alaska from certifying its U.S. Senate result, arguing that two Republican candidates named Dan and Daniel Sullivan on the ranked-choice ballot could confuse voters and tilt the outcome toward Democratic nominee Mary Peltola.

The suit was filed in U.S. District Court in Alaska and names state Elections Director Carol Beecher as a defendant. The DOJ is asking a judge to bar Alaska from certifying any result that may be impacted by voter confusion, pending an investigation to determine whether votes cast for Daniel J. Sullivan were meant to be cast for Senator Sullivan. The election is scheduled for 3 November.

Two Sullivans, one ballot

The incumbent, Sen. Dan Sullivan, is a two-term Republican seeking re-election in a state that has leaned red but where Democrats have gained ground. Also on the ballot is Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired schoolteacher running as a Republican, and Mary Peltola, the Democratic nominee and former U.S. House member from Alaska. The senator will appear on the ballot with the words ‘(Registered Republican) Incumbent’ next to his name, a designation intended to help voters distinguish between the two. Alaska conducts its Senate general election by ranked-choice voting, and Alaskans can rank up to five candidates in order of preference.

Daniel J. Sullivan received 2.5% of the vote in Alaska’s open primary on Aug. 28, enough to win one of four spots on the general election ballot. Peltola led the primary field with 49.5%, while Sen. Sullivan took 41.1%. A third Republican, Gerald Heikes, received 1.1%, earning the fourth ballot spot.

The DOJ’s argument

The suit says the sole purpose of Daniel J. Sullivan’s candidacy is to benefit the Peltola campaign by reducing the number of votes for Senator Sullivan. It says he decided to run as a Republican with the intention of misleading supporters of Senator Sullivan into voting for him. Beecher, the state’s elections director, had already found that the candidacy is for the purpose of confusing or misleading voters and compromising the fairness of the ballot. The DOJ argues that Daniel J. Sullivan’s presence on the ballot threatens to mislead Alaskan citizens who want to vote for Senator Sullivan, and that some supporters of the senator likely will inadvertently vote for the other Sullivan instead.

The suit also raises concerns about how ranked-choice voting could compound the problem. “Other supporters of Senator Sullivan likely will be confused as to how to rank the three Republican candidates as to defeat Peltola,” the lawsuit says. “They might not rank Senator Sullivan at all, resulting in votes for Daniel J. Sullivan to be transferred to Peltola after Daniel J. Sullivan’s all-but-guaranteed elimination in the first or second round of tabulations.”

A toss-up with majority stakes

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates the Alaska Senate race as one of seven toss-up contests in the chamber. FiftyPlusOne’s average of polling in the race shows Peltola with a narrow two-point lead over Sullivan. The race is one of several Senate contests that could determine whether Republicans retain their slim majority in the upper chamber. If Peltola wins, she would be the first Democrat to win the seat in nearly two decades.

Trump has routinely disparaged ranked-choice voting, calling it a ‘scam’ and encouraging voters to support a ballot measure in Alaska to repeal it. CNBC has requested comment from the DOJ, both Sullivans, and Peltola about the suit.