South Africans vote in local elections as ANC braces for significant losses

South Africans are voting in local elections on Wednesday, with the governing African National Congress expected to suffer significant losses amid widespread frustration over failing public services. The vote is widely seen as a verdict on the ANC. Polls opened at 7am (05:00 GMT) and close at 9pm (19:00 GMT). A record 29.2 million people are registered to vote at 23,696 voting stations across the country.

The ANC led South Africa out of apartheid in 1994. Its support has eroded over the past decade. The party fell below 50 percent in municipal polls for the first time in 2021, taking 45.6 percent of the vote. In the 2024 national election, it won 40.2 percent and lost its parliamentary majority, entering a coalition government with the centre-right Democratic Alliance and other parties. Polls now suggest the ANC could drop below 40 percent of the vote, while the Guardian reports the party’s support at less than a third. President Cyril Ramaphosa has acknowledged the problem. “Municipal failures have contributed to declining public trust and confidence in democratic governance,” he wrote in his weekly newsletter.

Johannesburg: the biggest prize

Johannesburg is the biggest prize. The city has 4.8 million people. The centre-right DA is leading polls in all three Gauteng metropolitan municipalities but has not broken 40 percent, and a News24 poll put DA candidate Helen Zille at 36 percent, a result that would force her to seek coalition partners to govern. Zille, 75, has run a vivid campaign featuring stunts such as snorkelling in water-filled infrastructure, and has told the Associated Press that the ANC is “in free fall”. The former Cape Town mayor is viewed with suspicion by many voters, especially black South Africans, because of past comments that appeared to excuse colonialism. Some voters also point to soaring housing costs in Cape Town, which the DA has run since 2006, as a reason to reject her. Former Johannesburg DA mayor Herman Mashaba, who now leads ActionSA and is polling around 10 percent, has ruled out working with Zille. He has called her a “racist”, an allegation she has fervently denied. The ANC has three possible mayoral candidates for Johannesburg amid factional infighting. The party currently governs with the EFF, the Patriotic Alliance and ActionSA across Gauteng’s three metros. While the ANC’s national leadership is open to working with the DA in Gauteng, local ANC leaders are reportedly not in favour.

Service delivery failures and political churn

The evidence of service delivery failure is stark. In October, more than 800 people contracted a gastrointestinal illness from contaminated water in Bronkhorstspruit, in east Tshwane. Johannesburg has had multiple mayors in recent years amid deep political instability — the Guardian counts 10 mayors in as many years, while Al Jazeera puts the figure at five in four years. Ekurhuleni has had three mayors since 2021. Tshwane’s mayoralty has rotated between parties four times since 2020. All three cities sit in Gauteng, South Africa’s most populous and densely populated province and its economic engine.

Zuma’s MK party targets Durban

Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe party is mounting a strong challenge in Durban, the port city at the heart of the eThekwini metropolitan municipality. MK is polling above 40 percent in eThekwini; the ANC won 42 percent there in 2021 but is now polling around 10 percent. This is MK’s first local election. Zuma, 84, has weathered and denied numerous corruption allegations. “We are going to start by taking back our country here,” he told supporters in the city on Sunday, AFP reported. Durban has also become a centre of anti-migrant sentiment, a prominent theme in the campaign. KwaZulu-Natal has 165 voting stations classed as high risk, the most of any province.

Coalition landscape and what comes next

There are 257 municipalities in South Africa. Coalition government is already widespread. 74 of those municipalities were run by coalitions or minority administrations as of February, according to the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection. Voters are electing councils for eight metropolitan municipalities, 44 district councils and 205 local councils, and those councils then choose mayors, who are not directly elected by the public. More than 1.4 million special votes were cast on Monday and Tuesday. Turnout may be a concern. Only 46 percent of registered voters participated in the 2021 municipal elections. Police said 21 election-related cases have been recorded since Sunday. Final results are expected on Sunday, though the Guardian notes the electoral commission has a week to announce them, after which parties would have two weeks to form councils and elect mayors. The outcome is expected to shape the race to succeed Ramaphosa as ANC leader at the party’s conference in December 2027. In Cape Town, the DA looks set to retain its majority, probably with less than the 58 percent it won in 2021.