Americans vote in midterms framed as a referendum on a weakened Trump

Americans are voting November 3 in midterm elections with control of both the House and Senate at stake, and Republicans currently hold both chambers. The election is widely seen as a referendum on Trump.

Opinion polls show Trump’s approval ratings have fallen to between 33 and 37%, a record low. A final set of polls from the New York Times and Siena University, published on Sunday, put Democratic candidates ahead in five of seven key battleground contests, including Texas and Kansas. Republicans are campaigning defensively in traditionally safe Republican territory, forced to spend heavily in states they once took for granted.

War and prices weigh on the incumbent party

Trump launched a war with Iran in February, and the conflict has weighed heavily on the electorate. The price of a gallon of diesel was $3.75 before the war started and hit a record high of $6.52 in September. The war increased global oil prices, raising prices at the pump for American motorists and driving up the cost of diesel, a vital fuel for supply chains and farmers. Inflation has risen from 3% when Trump took office to 3.7% currently. Trump has also imposed tariffs on foreign imports, and economists estimate inflation would have been lower without those tariffs. Voters are most concerned about the cost of living, and that frustration is shaping the final days of the campaign in states that rarely feature competitive Senate races.

Republicans spend to hold what they should win

Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. Texas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. Yet Republicans have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into traditionally safe contests such as the Senate race in Kansas. “When they start spending hard American dollars on political advertising in a state that they should be winning, that’s how you know that they think they’re in trouble,” said Carrie Dann, managing editor of the Cook Political Report. The spending points to a party approaching these elections on the defensive, shoring up seats that should not require shoring up.

Trump asks voters to pretend

Trump has staged several dozen rallies across the country during the campaign. At many of them, he has urged voters to pretend his name is on the ballot. During the 2022 midterms, Trump’s endorsement was courted by Republicans who saw it as vital to success. Trump won the 2024 presidential election in a crushing victory and returned to the White House with healthy approval ratings. He has two years of his presidency remaining.

Frustration on friendly ground

Republican voters in Iowa have expressed frustration with Trump’s world stage interventions but would not vote for a Democrat. “He’s got us in the war,” said Rose Heming, a voter in Iowa. “Prices and groceries [are] high — sky high — gas is sky high.” Tim McKinnon, a Republican voter in Iowa, offered a similar view. “We like to stay out of people’s business,” he said. “And so [Trump’s] world stage interventions time after time after time — we don’t love it.” The frustration is real, but it does not translate into willingness to cross party lines at the ballot box.

Democrats divided even as opportunity beckons

The Democratic Party’s own fractures have surfaced publicly during this cycle. In Michigan, Democratic congresswoman Haley Stevens lost her party’s Senate primary to Abdul El-Sayed and endorsed his Republican rival, Mike Rogers, on Sunday. Chuck Schumer, the Senate minority leader, described the endorsement as “a despicable betrayal.” The feud between Stevens and the El-Sayed campaign involved an outside group’s campaign ad that blamed the high cost of living on US support for Israel. In Alaska, the Democratic Senate candidate’s campaign was reported to be behind an effort to recruit a challenger with almost the same name as Republican senator Dan Sullivan. Mary Peltola, the Democratic candidate, has denied any knowledge of the scheme. The Department of Justice filed a lawsuit to block certification of Alaska’s Senate results, citing voter confusion over two Dan Sullivans on the ballot, but a judge has dismissed the lawsuit. A national NBC poll released on Sunday shows only 29% of voters view the Democratic Party positively. Democrats are already looking ahead to the 2028 presidential election, and rising stars mentioned include Jon Ossoff in Georgia and James Talarico in Texas.

Courts and poll monitors

At least 34 federal district court decisions have temporarily or permanently blocked administration initiatives involving election procedures and demands for voter registration records, per an October 20 review by the Brennan Center for Justice. On October 26, a federal appeals court declined to order California to set aside ballots from approximately 20,000 registered voters whom the Justice Department alleges may be noncitizens. The justice department, under Trump’s close ally Todd Blanche, plans to deploy a record 1,000 election monitors to polling stations across the country. Critics have denounced the deployment as voter intimidation. The administration maintains its actions protect electoral integrity.

What control would mean

A Democratic House majority would strengthen the opposition’s ability to investigate administration policies, subpoena officials and scrutinise executive decisions. Control of the Senate would give Democrats greater influence over presidential nominations and judicial appointments. Trump would retain his veto power and substantial executive authority even under unified Democratic control of Congress. The party holding the White House typically loses congressional seats at midterm elections.