Democrats ride economic messaging to Senate and House victories in the 2026 midterms

Democrat Roy Cooper won North Carolina’s US Senate seat, defeating Republican Michael Whatley and becoming the first Democrat elected to the Senate from North Carolina since 2008.

Democrats are showing strength in key Senate and House races in the 2026 midterms. Jon Ossoff won reelection in Georgia’s US Senate race. Chris Pappas won New Hampshire’s US Senate race, defeating John Sununu. Mark Warner won reelection in Virginia, defeating Republican Bert Mizusawa.

Cooper’s affordability message vs. Whatley’s crime focus

Cooper is a moderate former two-term governor who served as governor from 2017 to 2024. His campaign focused on affordability issues, promoted as the ‘Make Stuff Cost Less’ tour. Whatley’s campaign centered around crime and immigration issues, but polls indicated the economy, not crime, was the top concern for North Carolina voters. The race was Whatley’s first run for elected office. Whatley is a former Republican National Committee chairman.

Cooper’s campaign painted Whatley as a lobbyist for Big Oil who would become a rubber stamp for Trump. Whatley criticized Cooper over a COVID-era legal settlement that released inmates from state prisons to address overcrowding during the pandemic. Cooper consistently led Whatley in polling throughout the race. National GOP organizations pulled funding and TV ads from North Carolina and redirected money to other states.

“Really it’s the economy is Issue A and then Issue B is probably government corruption, that people are following the most,” said Patrick Sebastian, a Republican strategist.

The Tillis vacancy and Trump’s shadow

The seat was open because Republican Senator Thom Tillis opted not to seek reelection. Tillis announced in 2025 he wouldn’t seek reelection, after Trump threatened him with a primary challenger for failing to support the president’s tax cut and spending bill. Tillis has been promoting a new book criticizing fellow Republicans rather than campaigning for Whatley. Trump and Vice President Vance came to North Carolina for multiple rallies in the final weeks of the campaign. North Carolina has narrowly voted for Trump three times since 2016. Donald Trump is serving as US President during these midterms.

Florida Democrats hold redrawn House seats

Debbie Wasserman Schultz won reelection in Florida’s 20th congressional district, securing a 12th term and beating Republican Brent Andersen. Kathy Castor won reelection in Florida’s 14th congressional district, which was redrawn to boost Republicans; she has served 10 terms. Jared Moskowitz won reelection in Florida’s redrawn 25th congressional district, beating Republican Scott Singer. Pia Dandiya won Florida’s 22nd congressional district, a redrawn seat in Palm Beach gerrymandered to benefit Republicans; she is a former high school principal who beat Republican Casey Askar, a marine veteran. Florida Republican Ashley Moody prevailed in a Senate race. Florida Republican Byron Donalds prevailed in a governor race.

Markets brace for a blue wave

Polls were pointing to a Democratic victory in the House and a toss-up in the Senate, while prediction markets were more favorable to Democrats, calling for a blue sweep. JPMorgan sees a blue wave knocking the S&P 500 by about a half percent on Wednesday. Republicans retaining both chambers could spur a market rally. Citigroup strategists said Republicans losing the House but keeping the Senate could be a tailwind for equities into year-end. JPMorgan traders predict up to a one percent pop if Republicans hold the Senate. The S&P 500 was up one year out after all midterm elections going back to the early 1980s. The S&P 500 has recorded double-digit gains so far in 2026. The Nasdaq Composite posted its worst day since June on the Friday before the election due to turbulence in the AI trade.

“Investors seem to have a significant dose of skepticism about whether the final outcome is going to be quite as favorable to Democrats as the polling suggests,” said Tobin Marcus, head of U.S. policy and politics at Wolfe Research.

New Hampshire and the Shaheen seat

Chris Pappas is a four-term Democratic congressman. Jeanne Shaheen’s Senate seat was the one Pappas won. Democrat Stefany Shaheen won the race for Pappas’s House seat.

“Tonight’s results are a wakeup call for corporate special interests and billionaires who have been rigging the economy, for the cowards in Congress who have enabled healthcare cuts, tariffs and war, and for the incompetent president who can’t even be bothered to care how people are being hurt,” said Chris Pappas.

Races still in play

Arizona’s sixth congressional district features Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani facing Democrat JoAnna Mendoza, a former US marine. Arizona’s gubernatorial race features Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs seeking a second term against Republican Andy Biggs, who won Trump’s endorsement in the primary. Iowa’s open Senate race pits Republican congresswoman Ashley Hinson against Democratic state lawmaker Josh Turek. Iowa’s gubernatorial race features Democratic state auditor Rob Sand against Republican nominee Zach Lahn.